![]() While most organizations expressed growing confidence in the development of an El Niño, which typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, UA, CSU, TWC, UPenn, and NOAA noted that well above average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic basin could yield greater activity, particularly if a weaker El Niño event materializes. On May 25, NOAA announced their predictions for the 2023 hurricane season, calling for 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 1 to 4 major hurricanes, with a 40% chance of a near-normal season and 30% each for an above-average season and a below-average season. On May 1, University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) released their forecast for 12–20 named storms. Also on April 13, TWC posted their forecast for 2023, calling for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. On April 13, CSU researchers released their prediction of 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 100 units. The following day, the University of Arizona (UA) posted their forecast for a very busy season featuring 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 163 units. ![]() Their updated prediction on April 6, 2023, called for a similar number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, but reduced the number of named storms by one. On December 6, 2022, TSR released the first early prediction for the 2023 Atlantic season, predicting a slightly below average year with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. ![]() NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 19 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 74–126 units. The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Philip J. In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. ![]() † Most recent of several such occurrences. Seasonal forecasts Predictions of tropical activity in the 2023 season Source The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15 these detail areas of disturbed weather deemed to have some potential for tropical cyclone formation during the ensuing seven days, up from five in previous years. ![]() However, the formation of subtropical or tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year, as shown by the formation of an unnamed subtropical storm in mid-January, the earliest start of an Atlantic hurricane season since Hurricane Alex in 2016. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic (over 97%). It officially begins on June 1, 2023, and ends on November 30, 2023. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is the current hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean. Timeline of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. ![]()
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